Inside the Sun Belt · preview

Old Dominion won this game 45-10 last year and both teams are 2-4 now

We have been pointing at Thursday for three weeks. After the Georgia State loss we wrote that it was the next chance to make Ballard Stadium matter this season. Before App State we wrote that it was the one night all year the Monarchs get a national audience and a home crowd at the same time. On Sunday we wrote that they would walk into it off a road win instead of a five-game losing streak.

All of that is still true. Here is the part that is new.

What won at App State may not work Thursday

Old Dominion won 10-3 in Boone by holding the ball for 38:50, running for 207 yards, and holding App State to 1 of 13 on third down and nine first downs.

It was also a win over a team that wanted to run. Georgia Southern does not want to run.

The Eagles throw it. Max Johnson is 148 of 224 for 1,572 yards with 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, which is 262 passing yards a game and a completion rate of 66 percent. They average 395.8 yards of total offense, and 275.8 of it comes through the air. Four different receivers already have more than 200 yards: Josh Dallas has 37 catches, Alex Taylor has 267 yards and three touchdowns, River Helms has 236, and Jeremiah Ware has 214.

Old Dominion has not faced that this year. The quarterback who did the most damage to them was Georgia State's Cameran Brown, who threw six touchdown passes in a 42-10 win three weeks ago.

The quarterback numbers, side by side

Johnson has 1,572 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Old Dominion has used two quarterbacks and they have combined for 849 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions. Quinn Henicle is 48 of 88 for 570 with three touchdowns and four picks. Ryan Huff is 23 of 48 for 279.

One team throws for 276 a game. The other throws for 143 and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.

What Old Dominion does instead is run it with the quarterback. Henicle has 81 carries, one more than running back Devin Roche, and his four rushing touchdowns are the most on the team. Roche has 348 yards at 4.3 a carry.

The series says one thing and this season says another

Old Dominion has beaten Georgia Southern three straight times, and the last two were not close: 45-10 in Statesboro last year and 47-19 at Ballard the year before. Georgia Southern's last win in the series was 28-23 in Norfolk in 2022.

Those results belong to a different Old Dominion team. This one averages 18.2 points a game, has scored more than 21 once, and that once was against an FCS opponent in September.

The common opponent says something different. James Madison beat Old Dominion 46-20 at Ballard on September 26. James Madison beat Georgia Southern 27-24 in Statesboro on Saturday night.

Both teams are on a short week, one of them is traveling

Old Dominion kicked off at 1pm Saturday in Boone and was done by late afternoon. Georgia Southern kicked off at 8:10pm and did not finish until nearly midnight, then has to get from Statesboro to Norfolk, which is about 550 miles.

Four days is short for both of them, and Georgia Southern is the one spending part of it on a bus or a plane.

What a good Thursday looks like

Score a touchdown on offense. The ten points in Boone were a safety, a two-yard run and a two-point conversion, and Nathanial Eichner did not kick any of them.

Get Johnson off schedule. Georgia Southern converts 41.2 percent of its third downs and Old Dominion's defense has allowed 33 percent.

Hold onto it. Old Dominion has turned the ball over 13 times in six games and Georgia Southern has turned it over six.

Fill the stadium. Ballard held 21,944 for Norfolk State in September, 21,444 for East Carolina and 20,035 for James Madison. The number has gone down every time the team has played at home.

So what happens Thursday

Georgia Southern is the better offense by every number either team has produced, and they are coming off a three-point loss to the team that beat Old Dominion by 26.

What Old Dominion has is a defense that just held a Sun Belt team to three points and nine first downs, and a home game on four days rest.

Kickoff is 7:30pm Thursday at S.B. Ballard Stadium, on ESPN2.