Inside the ACC · preview

Virginia is unbeaten at home and Duke comes in on a two-game losing streak

The last time these two played, Duke won the ACC Championship Game 27-20 in overtime in Charlotte last December. Three weeks before that, Virginia had won 34-17 in Durham.

Friday is the first meeting since. Virginia is 4-3 and 2-2 in the ACC. Duke is 4-2 and 1-2.

Virginia at home and away

Virginia has played four games at Scott Stadium and won all four: 34-8 over NC State, 59-3 over Norfolk State, 42-3 over Delaware and 28-25 over Syracuse.

Away from Charlottesville they are 0-3. West Virginia beat them 38-27 in Charlotte, Florida State beat them 38-7 at Doak Campbell Stadium, and SMU beat them 23-13 at SMU last Saturday.

In our week 8 roundup we wrote that Virginia was 4-1 at Scott Stadium. That was wrong. The West Virginia game was a neutral-site game in Charlotte, and Virginia has not lost at Scott Stadium this season.

The last three games

Florida State outgained Virginia 464 to 205. Syracuse outgained them 430 to 282, and Virginia won anyway, scoring 21 unanswered points after trailing 17-7 at halftime. SMU outgained them 404 to 258.

Beau Pribula went 66 of 86 for 793 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception in the first four games. In the last three he is 38 of 73 for 418 yards and two touchdowns. He has not thrown an interception in any of them, but Virginia has not scored more than 28 points in any of them either.

Virginia forced eight turnovers in its first five games and has not forced one in the two since.

Duke's two losses

Duke lost 28-25 at Georgia Tech on October 10 and 24-20 at home to North Carolina last Saturday. It outgained both of them, 418 to 383 and 373 to 326.

Duke has outgained five of its six opponents this season. The only one that outgained Duke was Illinois, by six yards, and Duke won that game 31-27 in Champaign.

Walker Eget has thrown for 1,229 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. Duke has turned it over three times all season.

Nate Sheppard

Duke's running back ran for 227 yards against Tulane in the opener and 644 in the first four games, at 7.1 yards a carry.

In the last two games he ran 47 times for 176, which is 3.7 a carry. In the same two games he caught 18 passes for 189 yards. He had caught 10 for 70 in the four games before that.

What decides it

Whether Virginia can run it. The Cavaliers ran for 37 yards at Florida State, 169 against Syracuse and 121 at SMU. Duke has given up more than 111 rushing yards twice this season, and they were the two losses.

Whether Virginia can get off the field. Syracuse held the ball for 35:07 at Scott Stadium. SMU went 4 for 5 on fourth down. Duke has held the ball for at least 31 minutes in each of its last two games.

So what happens Friday

Virginia has won every game it has played at Scott Stadium. It has also been outgained in each of its last three, and the one it won was a three-point game with 2:50 left.

Duke's two losses were by a combined seven points, both to teams it outgained.

We think Duke wins a close one.

Kickoff is 7pm Friday at Scott Stadium on ESPN. North Carolina Central at Delaware State kicks off at 5pm on ESPN2, and that preview is up as well.