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Virginia Tech is seven points from undefeated

Virginia Tech scores 37.7 points a game, more than any other team on this beat.

Virginia Tech is 4-2.

The last two minutes have cost them twice

On October 2 at Lane Stadium, John Love lined up a 36-yarder with two seconds left and Pittsburgh won 35-33. We wrote the whole piece about that kick, because nobody could review it.

Eight days later in Berkeley, Ethan Grunkemeyer ran it in from a yard out with 1:15 on the clock to put Virginia Tech ahead 20-19. The two-point try failed. California went the length of the field and scored from two yards with 18 seconds left, and their own two-point try failed too, which is how a one-point lead became a five-point loss.

Two games, seven points, both decided after the two-minute mark. A team that has outscored its opposition by 17 a game has lost two in a row and has nothing to show for either of them.

Ten given away, four taken back

Here is the number that explains more than the kick did.

Virginia Tech has lost ten turnovers this season and taken four. That is a margin of minus six across six games, and the only team on this beat doing worse is Hampton, who are 1-5.

Everything else says this team is the better side most Saturdays. They average 456.5 yards and allow 295.8. They convert 42.5 percent of third downs and hold opponents to 32.1. They hold the ball for 32:14. None of that has been enough twice now, and the giveaways are the reason it has not.

The quarterback is not the problem

Ethan Grunkemeyer is 152 of 207 for 1,734 yards with 12 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. That is a 73.4 percent completion rate and 289 passing yards a game, and the two interceptions are fewer than Georgia Tech's quarterback has thrown in one fewer game.

Jeffrey Overton Jr. has 528 rushing yards at 5.9 a carry. Que'Sean Brown has 40 catches and Luke Reynolds has 41, and Reynolds has four touchdowns.

The honest caveat on the scoring average: 73 of those points came against VMI in the opener. Against the five FBS teams on the schedule the Hokies average 30.6.

What Georgia Tech is

The Yellow Jackets are 2-3 and have already had their bye. They lost 14-13 to Colorado, lost 45-24 to Tennessee, beat Mercer 44-11, lost 34-27 at Stanford, and beat Duke 28-25.

They give up more than they gain: 388.8 yards allowed against 372.6 gained. The number Virginia Tech will have circled is third down, where Georgia Tech's opponents convert 45.3 percent. Virginia Tech converts 42.5, the best figure on this beat.

Alberto Mendoza is 107 of 153 for 1,193 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, so he is efficient too. Justice Haynes has 462 rushing yards at 5.3 a carry and Trelain Maddox has four rushing touchdowns on 25 carries.

Georgia Tech has also been careful with it: five turnovers lost in five games. Virginia Tech has lost ten in six.

The last meeting went the other way

Georgia Tech beat Virginia Tech 35-20 in Atlanta last season. Before that the Hokies won 21-6 at Lane Stadium in 2024, and before that Georgia Tech won 28-27 in Blacksburg in 2022.

This is James Franklin's first season at Virginia Tech, so none of those results are his.

What decides it

Third down. Georgia Tech allows 45.3 percent and Virginia Tech converts 42.5. If that matchup holds for sixty minutes the Hokies do not need a late drive.

The giveaways. Ten in six games is how a team that outgains everybody ends up 4-2, and Georgia Tech has only taken the ball away twice all season, so Virginia Tech will not be punished for a mistake unless it makes one.

Finish. Both losses came with the lead inside two minutes.

So what happens Saturday

Virginia Tech is the better team by every season number either side has produced, at home, against an opponent that allows more than it gains. That was also true against Pittsburgh.

Kickoff is 3:30pm Saturday at Lane Stadium, on ACC Network. We will be in the press box, and on the field for the last five minutes.